Strategy Research

Fallen Angels Part 1 – The BBB Companies Most at Risk of a Downgrade to High Yield by QML Solutions

We screened over 300 BBB companies to find the firms most likely to fall to high yield in 2026 and 2027.

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Equity Vulnerability Scores: Q3 2025 Update by QML Solutions

We update our scoring model to track how risk profiles have shifted across S&P 500 sectors and companies.

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Corporate Credit Spreads: Thin Risk Premiums Leave Little Cushion by QML Solutions

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Credit-Equity Convergence Part 2: The ETF Bid by QML Solutions

We quantify how ETF demand for investment grade corporate bonds impacts the liquidity and pricing of the underlying securities.

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Credit-Equity Convergence Part 1: The Rise of Correlation by QML Solutions

The first in our series of articles reveals how the co-movement of stock and bond indices has ramped up in recent years.

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2025Q1 Credit Monitor: Where Balance Sheets Weakened by QML Solutions

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Credit Monitor: Which Ratings Don’t Match the Metrics? by QML Solutions

We break down average credit ratios by agency rating

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Stress Tested: Which S&P 500 Companies are Most Exposed to an Earnings Shock? by QML Solutions

We apply earnings shocks from past recessions to today's S&P 500 index to find the sectors and companies that could suffer severe deterioration in leverage and interest coverage.

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The Drivers of Equity Drawdowns: Identifying Vulnerable S&P 500 Companies by QML Solutions

Building on our earlier work on leverage and market stress, we introduce a simple but effective model to help identify the S&P 500 companies most at risk of sharp equity drawdowns in a recession.

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The Quiet Squeeze: How Refinancing Risk Is Eroding Corporate Margins by QML Solutions

We quantify which sectors face the most pressure as maturing debt rolls into a higher-rate environment.

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The Leveraged Landscape: S&P 500 Vulnerability to Economic Shock by QML Solutions

The increase in leverage across the S&P 500 is setting the market up for a harder fall during the next economic shock.

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